I feel that in the Probabilty course, Bayesian interference section, multiplication video the question you are asking at 3:07 is wrong: “What is the probabilty of drawing a spade on the second draw, assuming we did not draw a spade on the first draw?”.
I think the right question is: “What is the probabilty of drawing a spade on the second draw and not drawing a spade on the first draw?”
Please, if I am wrong explain it why! To me the answer to your question is simply 13/51.
Thanks in advance :).
Thanks for reaching out!
So, you’re not wrong in the sense that the wording of the question is ambiguous. Your suggestion might be better, so we’ll consider changing it to make the purpose of this video clearer.