Time Series Analysis in Python
In Data Science mainly relies on working with two types of data - cross-sectional and time series. This course will help you master the latter by introducing you to ARMA, Seasonal, Integrated, MAX and Volatility models as well as show you how to forecast them into the future.
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In this short section, we’ll tell you a bit more of what the course is about, how its structured and what our goal is.
Setting up the working environment
In this part of the course, we will explain to you how to set up Python 3 and then load up Jupyter. We’ll also show you what the Anaconda Prompt is and how we use it to download and import new modules.
Introduction to Time Series in Python
In this section of the course, we are going to learn what makes a dataset a time series, and discuss what separates it from cross-sectional data. We’ll introduce the appropriate mathematical notation for such data before loading up a dataset and quickly examining it.
Creating a Time Series Object in Python
In this section of the course, we will go through the pre-processing aspects of working with time series. We’ll see how to interpret string text as dates and set these dates as indices of the data set. We’ll then set a fixed frequency and account for any missing values before splitting up the set for training and testing. In the appendix, we’ll show you how to import data directly from Yahoo Finance, so you can conduct your own analysis after completing the course.
Working with Time Series in Python
In this section of the course, we’ll examine and visualize some important types of time series, like white noise and a random walk. We’ll then discuss important concepts like stationarity, seasonality and autocorrelation, before exploring the ACF and PACF of a S&P 500’s prices.
Picking the Correct Model
In this short section, we’ll discuss the general rules of manual model selection. We will talk about which models we prefer, what we want to avoid and how to decide between models. We’ll talk about the Log-likelihood and information criterion as measurements of preference among similar models.
The Autoregressive (AR) Model
In this section, we’ll introduce the Autoregressive Model and see how well it models market index prices and returns. We’ll discuss how to use the PACF to determine the appropriate number of lags for the model and explore the concept of normalizing values and its impact on model selection.
The Moving Average (MA) Model
In this section, we’ll introduce the Moving Average model and see how well it describes price returns. We’ll also have a look at how the MA model performs when dealing with non-stationary data and comment on the mathematical arguments for and against using such models for index prices.
The Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model
In this section, we’ll combine the two models we just examined – the AR and MA – into one: the ARMA. We’ll examine how they synergize and limit the drawbacks each model has on its own. We’ll then talk about the issues that come along with finding the best-fitting ARMA model and see how checking the model residuals can be beneficial in model selection.
The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model
In this section of the course, we’ll talk about “integration” and integrated models. We’ll explain why and when we use them, as well as when we should avoid them. Here, we’ll also briefly explain the idea of “MAX” models and how to add exogenous variables to any time series model.
The ARCH Model
In this section, we’ll talk about the idea of measuring volatility when we’re looking for stability in our investments. We’ll explain the multiple layers of ARCH models and how they differ from the ARMA family of models we just examined. We’ll spend some time discussing the vast functionality of the “arch_model” method and why it’s important to know the default values for many of its arguments.
The GARCH Model
In this section of the course, we’ll discuss the generalized version of the ARCH model, also known as the GARCH. We’ll explore why this model is more widely used, how it outperforms high-order ARCH models and why it looks so similar to the ARMA. We’ll then empirically test the known fact that the GARCH(1,1) is the best model for measuring the volatility of price returns.
This course is part of Module 4 of the 365 Data Science Program. The complete training consists of four modules, each building upon your knowledge from the previous one. Module 4 is focused on developing a specialized, industry-relevant skill set, and students are encouraged to complete Modules 1, 2, and 3 before they start this part of the training. Here, you will learn how to perform Credit Risk Modeling for banks, Customer Analytics for retail or other commercial companies, and Time Series Analysis for finance and stock data.See All Modules
Why Choose the 365 Data Science Program?
Real-life project and data. Solve them on your own computer as you would in the office.
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The course is in-depth and is delivered at a steady pace with eye catching visuals. The instructors go through all the basics really well. They try not to over-simplify the material, you get a good sense аof how deep Data Science is in the course. Great job!!!
This course is amazing! After watching the video carefully and doing all the exercises, I am even capable of having discussions with Machine learning major Master’s students! High standard course with reasonable pricing.
Very clear and in-depth explanation of data science and how all the inter-related concepts apply in real life business environment. Absolutely great for beginners! Best data science course I have come across so far!
I would highly recommend the course to any beginner who wants to venture into the world of Data Science. The concepts are very well explained and there is an emphasis on practical application which really helps create a better understanding of the concepts.